Korean Stock Market Related Figures

Korean Stock Market Related Figures: Dollar/Won exchange rate stabilization, sharp drop in international oil prices, and surge in night futures

The MSCI Korea Stock Market ETF surged by 6.38%, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF also rose by 3.00%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged by 3.75% early in the session but gave back some gains to close up 1.34%. The Russell 2000 Index rose by 2.29%, and the Dow Transportation Average by 1.33%. KOSPI night futures surged by 6.50% as of 5:15 PM (closing price at 6 PM). In the Seoul foreign exchange market the previous day, the Dollar/Won exchange rate recorded 1,517.30 won. In the night market, as international oil prices plummeted due to Trump's remarks, it closed at 1,486.70 won. The NDF Dollar/Won 1-month forward rate recorded 1,484.75 won. 

*FICC: International oil prices plummet due to Trump's remarks

International oil prices plummeted as U.S. President Trump announced he was negotiating with Iran and mentioned a 5-day halt to plans for airstrikes on Iranian energy facilities. This action follows President Trump's statement that he had constructive talks with Iran over the past two days and that discussions would continue this week. Of course, although Iran claimed there were no negotiations, the market initially reflected expectations of a delayed attack. U.S. natural gas prices fell sharply due to the plunge in international oil prices and mild weather forecasts. 

The dollar weakened against other currencies, reflecting stable Treasury yields, after U.S. President Trump announced talks with Iran. The euro and pound strengthened against the dollar, driven by dollar weakness and the possibility of interest rate hikes. In particular, contrary to earlier forecasts of two rate cuts before the Iran conflict, the Bank of England now faces concerns about interest rate hikes due to inflation instability caused by the energy shock. The yen strengthened against the dollar after Atsushi Mimura, BOJ's head of foreign exchange, stated that the government is prepared to take all necessary measures to respond to currency fluctuations. With offshore yuan showing strength in the 0.3% range, the Mexican peso, Brazilian real, and Dollar/Won exchange rate all strengthened by around 1%.

Treasury yields, which had surged due to the conflict with Iran, fell sharply, particularly for short-term bonds, after U.S. President Trump announced productive talks with Iran. The easing of inflation concerns due to the sharp drop in international oil prices following Trump's remarks was a key factor. However, CME FedWatch still shows a probability of an interest rate hike at the April FOMC, requiring continuous attention.

Gold fell by over 3%, despite a weaker dollar and lower interest rates, as safe-haven sentiment diminished on news of negotiations with Iran. Silver showed limited fluctuations, while platinum weakened by over 5%. Copper and non-ferrous metals strengthened across most items, with copper rising by over 3%, as buying interest emerged following Trump's remarks about negotiations with Iran. Despite a weaker dollar, wheat prices fell as concerns eased that high fuel and fertilizer costs due to falling oil prices could reduce wheat planting. Soybeans rose on expectations of a de-escalation of the Iran conflict and anticipation of Trump's visit to China. Corn prices fell due to concerns about increased supply as expectations for crop yields in South America rose.